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It’s easy to understand why early cars looked like carriages without horses. First of all, an appropriate metaphor for designing an “automobile” was years away from being established. Societal expectations about what personal transportation could be really didn’t need to exceed the present paradigm. The potential of a carriage without a horse was more than enough to initially attract what would quickly become a sizable market.
(Special Note: And before anyone wants debate how cars are horrible for the environment, think about the alternative. Consider that in London, early automobiles were celebrated as an ecologic answer to the horrible problem of having to daily remove tons of animal manure from city streets. Yes – I get that public transportation has potential. But you can’t call a train to take you to the hospital. Not even in Japan).
Anyway, back to the original point. The real reasons that early cars looked as they did is because 1) There was no other existing infrastructure for methods of distribution or manufacturing. Roads were often little more than single-lane, tree-lined paths incapable of more than light traffic. And 2) if you wanted to build anything mechanical to transport a few people at a time you contracted with a buggy and carriage maker. Few others had the necessary expertise to engineer the wheels, suspension and infrastructure required to evolve into early automobiles.
So now, 100 years or so later – it’s come to this.
And as much as it pains Guy Robinson, who constantly suggests I drive some European thing of beauty from VW, Volvo, Saab, Audi, BMW, Mercedes or Fiat (or maybe not Fiat – maybe the Fiat is Robin Capper’s nagging 😉 this is the family car. And I sincerely appreciate their suggestions. But to date neither have offered to augment any of the required funds for such an upgrade. 😉
Yet in any event, if a Honda minivan represents the most mundane demographic of automobile design evolution of the past 100 years, consider the following:
- An six-cylinder engine that shuts down by half after the stress of acceleration
- Fully climate controlled
- Cruise control
- Anti-lock breaking
- Front, side and rear airbags
- Satellite navigation and entertainment
- Audio and video feed to flat screen monitor and wireless headphones
- Room for eight passengers and luggage
- Distances in excess of 600 miles per day for less than $100
So what’s next? Many would point to all the buzz surrounding electric/hybrid/biodiesel powered systems. But seriously – what teenager is going to want the keys to a Prius? Because while a eco-hybrid-partofthesolutionratherthanpartoftheproblem may appeal to everyone’s sense of Reason, there’s little effort to appeal to nearly anyone’s sense of Vanity.
IMO, it’s it’s a damn shame that out of so many automotive engineers the world has yet to offer, somehow they’ve forgotten one of the most primal of automotive design equations:
(Sense of Danger – Adult Supervision)] =
% Chance of Getting Laid
No hormonal driven teenager wants to drive a car that resembles a catfish that’s had its head run over by a pickup.
But once again, I digress. What I’m trying to get to is the following prediction:
by developments in propulsion. It’ll be lead by advancements in automated navigation.
This is why the past 100 years of engineering and manufacturing hasn’t really evolved. We’ve simply been trying to improve on the original 100-year old concept of “horseless-ness”. This is evolution. Not revolution.
Animals as the engine gave way to engines that were animals. Internal combustion is far more reliable, cost effective and timely. And now we’re we’re in the process of trying to find a replacement for internal combustion. But neither represent a true paradigm shift. Because these “new” methods of transportation are little different than the first transition a century ago, when the first cars resembled the latest carriages. The irony now is that the first electric/hybrids/biodiesel vehicles merely resemble the latest offerings in internal combustion.
Why is the above description an evolution rather than a revolution? Because since the beginning of time, the fact is we’re still stuck steering.
But now there’s this.
And this. And this and this and this.
Hello? Cars that steer themselves? Trucks that steer themselves? Are you kidding me?
I believe this will be the next paradigm shift in personal transportation. You’ve got to believe that the next call to Google after this news broke was from the CEO of FedEx, while the CEO of UPS was “quite happy” to hold on line two. Never mind the US Postal Service. They’ve still not called. And their union is probably shitting bricks right now.
Implications?
- Automated, 24/7 commercial trucking (not to mention lower shipping costs).
- Maximized fuel consumption.
- Not only automated – but free – public transportation. Because driver-less buses will save is as much if not more than the revenue generated by fares.
- At risk groups (kids / teenagers / elderly) that can ‘drive’ themselves (school, friends, shopping, etc).
- Much, much faster (and far safer) personal transportation. Remove the element of fatigue, and speeds in excess of 200kph are possible over long distances with systems that take real-time weather, temperature, traffic and other external conditions into account – in a fraction of reaction times compared to human-based systems.
- Personal transportation far better equipped for long-distance and overnight trips. Options that enhance relaxation and even sleeping will become a feature. Hey! I guess this does tie into my previous tangent!
Initially these early systems will cost more to equip and insure. But very quickly I expect automated navigation will become standard. And eventually, the cost to insure will be a fraction compared to systems that are manually driven (at slower speeds and more accident prone). In time, I suspect you’ll have to pay extra to your insurance company if you want to do the driving.
When will this become a reality? About the same time Oprah convinces mothers (and the Federal Government) to nationally outlaw cell phones and texting while driving. The day after that law passes, this technology will be become publicly available. 🙂
So while this…
…actually evolved into this…
…with a little help from Google, it may eventually become this:
Norman Rockwell was truly ahead of his time. If you look closely, the dad is using an iPad. 😉
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